What Colour Goes With Burgundy

crisis?

I go to this blog often for the forthcoming resource crunch. In fact, resource crisis, its possible effects and how to address these, the motivation for this blog. So far I went on this blog believe that those who get lost here, the fact of the resource crunch are aware. For all those who have doubts, I would like to summarize where my conviction comes from.

16 industrial nations are following the oil crisis in 1973, establishing the IEA together (International Energy Agency) to predict such developments in the future. It is since 1974 part of the OECD. One of the main tasks of the IEA is to produce the annual "World Energy Outlook". This paper is the basis (should be the base?) for the energy policy of nations. Link: worldenergyoutlook.org .

The data sources of the IEA are the most complete that are available today. They individually examined the capacities of all oil wells to which they have access. Flow rates of individual oil wells are usually predictable. Their capacity as a function of time resembles a Gaussian bell curve as far as possible.

The data of individual major oil sources are lacking in the studies of the IEA. For example, Saudi Arabia, the largest known oil reserves in the world, puts these numbers do not open. The IEA is to rely on estimates.

let's look a forecast by the IEA for oil and gas resources:




(Source: IEA / AEO)

In the lower graph clearly what the situation really looks like. The two quantities in the upper graph, "Oil Fields yet to be developed" and "oil fields yet to be discovered" them plenty of room for speculation (and are highly controversial to say the least).

The official figures of the IEA are very frightening. Anyone who has followed the discussions about Peak Oil, however, know that the IEA is not necessarily telling the whole truth about our oil wells. A member of the IEA, told the Guardian fact that the U.S. put pressure on the IEA to the numbers "too nice". Reason is that the U.S. fears a severe economic crisis when the actual numbers come out. Furthermore, whilst the lower figure, the question is how much worse it can still be.

this Colin Campbell, former Director of the French oil group Total:

"If the real [oil reserves] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets ... in the end that would suit no one."

Given the importance of the oil for our food production, transportation and the production of goods In our society, this note is a cynicism that is not to over beers.

More on Peak Oil:
BBC: George Monbiot interviewed by IEA chief Fatih Birol

George Monbiot's Blog: At last a Date .
Telepolis: Why peak oil is officially ignored
Peak Oil Association: ASPO